Richard C. Larson
Mitsui Professor of Engineering Systems
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 USA

Video Summary: This video lesson shows students that math can play a role in understanding how an infectious disease spreads and how it can be controlled. During this lesson, students will see and use both deterministic and probabilistic models and will learn by doing through role-playing exercises. There are no formal prerequisites, as students in any high school or even middle school math class could enjoy this learning video. But more advanced classes can go into the optional applied probability modeling that accompanies the module in a downloadable pdf file. Materials needed for the lesson include paper or cardboard, plus scissors and tape or staples, for making green, red and blue-colored hats for each student. These supplies are also needed for making numbers to draw out of a hat. The primary exercises between video segments of this lesson are class-intensive simulation games in which members of the class 'infect' each other under alternative math modeling assumptions about disease progression. Also there is an occasional class discussion and local discussion with nearby classmates.

Online Animations, visit the Accompanying Online Animations for a selection of animations and/or simulations designed in coordination with the BLOSSOMS video flu games and intended to supplement the ideas covered in the BLOSSOMS module. These resources were developed by e-Learning Arabia.

• Simulation 1: Exponential Growth, Sampling without Replacement
• Simulation 2: Sampling with Replacement
• Simulation 3: Super Spreaders
• Simulation 4: R₀ =1.5
• Simulation 5: Initial Immunity
• Simulation 6: Statistical Flu Spread Simulation Too

Read Teacher's Guide to this video lesson (download in Word or PDF format)

Download Written Transcript of this video lesson (download in Word or PDF format)

Download document, "The Mathematics of Flu, Explained" (download in Word or PDF format)

Download document, "A Home Flu ‘Kit’ to Empower Individuals and Families for Pandemic Flu” (download in PDF format)

Download document, “Pandemic Influenza: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Behavioral Changes that May Save Lives” (download in PDF format)

Additional Online Resources:

• In this interactive, provided by NOVA, a player must use basic methods of field epidemiology to solve the medical mystery of a recent disease outbreak. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/typhoid/detective.html

• Is Epidemiology In Your Future? This site presents a promotional video webcast showing the many sides, and the many career opportunities, of this critical health profession.
  http://www.rwjf.org/pr/product.jsp?id=26931#content

• This site, sponsored by the Yale University-New Haven Teachers Institute, provides a curriculum unit that aims to provide students with background knowledge for the study of mathematical content that can be applied to the biological sciences, and attempts to connect relevant topics from the high-school mathematics content to the concepts in microbiology that affect real-life situations.
  http://www.yale.edu/ynhti/curriculum/guides/2009/5/09.05.08.x.html

• This site, sponsored by the Yale University-New Haven Teachers Institute, presents a cross-discipline mathematics unit designed for students in Algebra 2 or beyond. It incorporates functions with statistics to illuminate the useful nature of functions in translating data into models.
  http://www.yale.edu/ynhti/curriculum/guides/2009/5/09.05.06.x.html

• This site tracks the spread of swine flu virus using data from official sources, news reports and user-contributions and is updated multiple times per day.
  http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/

• This site presents “The Great Flu Game” in which a player has to manage a worldwide outbreak of a new influenza virus, before it turns into a pandemic.
  http://www.thegreatflu.com/

• This educational software/game illustrates the consequences of allowing the flu to spread in an interactive graphical simulation. It is intended to inform people of the reasons to take measures that will help prevent further spreading of the flu. Funded by the biomedical research charity, WellcomeTrust.ac.uk.
  http://www.miniclip.com/games/sneeze/en/

• This site, provided by the Florida Department of Health, provides useful information on the importance of hand-washing and “careful” coughing in preventing the spread of flu.
  http://www.fifthguy.com/handwashing.htm